Retirement Relocation: City/County Migrations
BY DON BRADLEY
Later Life Migration in the United States: Receiving and Sending Areas within States
Introduction
What are the most important sending and receiving areas for older interstate migrants in the United States? This is the third installment in a series that examines later-life migration, using recent data from the Census Bureau. Previous articles have described state-level patterns and state-to-state flows, but state-level tabulations provide only part of the picture. South Carolina and North Carolina are important destination states, ranking #4 and #5 respectively in terms of net-migration. Within these states, where do older in-migrants go? California sends about 55,000 older adults to other states annually; where do these out-bound migrants originate? These are the kinds of questions that state-level analysis cannot address and they are important questions.
State-level factors shape migration decision making in later life (e.g., climate, state tax policy, etc.), but local community-level considerations have an especially direct and powerful impact. At the point of origin, perceived neighborhood decline and social disorder may generate residential dissatisfaction, pushing individuals and couples to consider moving. Frustration with traffic, high costs, congestion, and a fear of crime may also motivate the decision to relocate away from urban areas. Community-level factors at destination are equally vital. Tourist destinations build connections and offer the kinds of amenities that often attract retirement-aged migrants. As previously noted, vacation experience in a particular community provide the kind of information that allows individual and couples to imagine living there happily in retirement. Also important, scholars have long recognized the part played by social networks - friends and family in a specific community provide information on housing options and offer the promise of support.
States are correctly viewed as a collection of sending zones and destination communities. The point of the present article is to identify and describe the places within states that send and receive the largest numbers of older interstate migrants.
In-Migration
The best available data to analyze later life migration comes from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) project. These are individual-level data, where each record represents a single ACS respondent. To protect the anonymity of ACS respondents, the Census Bureau releases limited geographic information.i The smallest spatial units defined in the individual-level ACS data are Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs), constructed to include no less than 100,000 persons.ii
Figure 1 depicts the estimated number of adults aged 60 or older arriving annually from out of state for every PUMA in the Contiguous United States. Top destination areas are, not surprisingly, clustered in leading destination states like Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Estimated total annual in-migration for the leading 100 PUMAs are shown in Table 1.iii Of note, there are a number of leading destination areas, nested in states that receive comparatively few older in-migrants. New Mexico, as a case in point, ranks 32nd in regards to total in-migration. The Santa Fe area PUMA, by contrast, ranks 61st out of some 2,300 PUMAs.
Before proceeding, readers are reminded that the ACS is an ongoing project that collects information from a large representative sample of US households each year. Consequently, the figures presented throughout the paper are estimates that are subject to random sampling error. For each area represented in the tables, one "Margin of Error" (MOE) above and below the estimated number of migrants defines the range that has a 95% chance of containing the true population value.iv The presented rankings offer a useful way to index and reference sending and destination areas, but in most cases areas with similar rankings will be statistically tied.
Central Florida
Heading the list is the "Northern Sumter & Northern Lake Counties" PUMA, the boundaries of which overlap with two metro areas: Orlando and The Villages. During the 2011-2015 period, "Northern Sumter & Northern Lake Counties" received an estimated 4,460 older in-migrants annually. A remarkable total, the annual flow of older in-migrants amounts to approximately 6.5% of the PUMA's total 60 and older population. Central Florida is clearly a vibrant destination area for older migrants. Area PUMAs ranking in the top 100 include: "Ocala, Fl: South Central Marion County" (#11), "Homosassa Springs, FL: Citrus County" (#27), "Orlando & The Villages, FL: Southern Lake & Southern Sumter Counties (#43), "Orlando, FL: Northern Lake County" (#36), "Lakeland, FL: Northeastern Polk County" (#33), and "Lakeland, FL: Southern Polk County" (#46). These PUMAs together attract more than 15,000 in-migrants aged 60 and older to Florida annually.
Northern and Western Arizona
Northern and Western Arizona boast several of the top destination PUMAs in the nation. Ranking second, "Lake Havasu City, AZ: Mohave & La Paz Counties-- Lake Havasu City" pulls an estimated 4,379 older migrants from out of state in a typical year. These newcomers in a given year amount to almost 6% of the PUMA's 60 and older population. Just to the east, an estimated 3,251 older adults move to "Prescott, AZ: Yavapi County" (#4) from out of state annually. Finally, in the Southwest corner, "Yuma, AZ: Yuma County- Yuma City" (#21) brings nearly 2,000 in-migrants aged 60 or older. These three PUMA's alone account for about 9,600 older in-migrants each year, which is more than relocate to Wisconsin annually, the 25th ranked state.
The Carolina Coast
"Hilton Head Island, SC: Beaufort & Jasper Counties" is the third-ranked in- migration PUMA; an estimated 3,396 adults aged 60 and older arrived annually from other states during the 2011-2015 period. The region's attraction is not surprising. The area is replete with golf courses, sailing and other recreational opportunities. What is more, Savannah, Georgia is less than an hour away.
South Carolina's other top 100 destination PUMA to the north "Myrtle Beach, SC: Southeastern Horry County," (#10) attracts about 2,400 older newcomers to the state annually. Across the border in North Carolina, "Brunswick County" (#37), is part of the Myrtle Beach metropolitan area and attracted roughly 1,500 interstate migrants aged 60 or older in an average year during the 2011-2015 period. This region, named "retirement alley" by some locals, lies along Highway 17 connecting Wilmington, North Carolina with Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Ready access to shopping and dining venues is an important advantage. From Holden Beach, in the heart of "retirement alley" one can reach Wilmington in about 45 minutes and North Myrtle Beach in roughly an hour.
Florida's Gulf Coast
"Punta Gorda, FL: Charlotte County" (#5), hosts an estimated 3,156 later life in- migrants annually. As is the case with all the top destination PUMAs, outdoor recreation opportunities and amenities are plentiful: Charlotte Harbor State Park, an array of golf clubs, and marinas. Sarasota to the north and the Fort Meyers area to the south are no more than an hour away from most spots in Charlotte County.
Florida's Gulf Coast is, in fact, home to the densest cluster of leading destination PUMA's in the nation. The North Port metro area incorporate at least parts of six leading PUMAS "Eastern Sarasota County" (#7), "Central Sarasota County & Gulf Coast" (#15), "Southern Manatee County" (#24), "West Central Manatee County" (#26), "Northern Sarasota County" (#49), and "Northern Manatee County" (#60). Cape Coral's boundaries overlap with five of the top 100 destination PUMAS in the US: "Northwestern Lee County" (#8), "Southern & Western Lee County" (#9), "Southeastern Lee County" (#13), "Northeastern Lee County" (#30), and "Central Lee County" (#42). Finally, three Collier County PUMA's in the Naples area attract no less than 1,400 older in-migrants annually: "Northwestern Collier County" (#19), "Eastern Collier County" (#34), and "Southwestern Collier County" (#41).
Phoenix, Arizona
The Greater Phoenix area includes ten leading destination PUMAs, though only three rank in the top fifty. "Maricopa County—El Mirage City & Sun City" (#6) attracts an estimated 2,600 older in-migrants annually. "Maricopa County— Eastern Mesa City," (#12) and "Northern Pinal County—Apache Junction City" (#22) account for 2,300 and about 1,900 respectively. Notably, Phoenix's top destination PUMA's are on the outskirts of the metropolitan area. Sun City is about 30 miles to the west. Mesa City is roughly the same distance to the east of Phoenix.
The amenity-rich Phoenix area has, of course, been a top retirement destination for many decades. Del E. Webb's Sun City, Arizona opened January 1, 1960 – the nation's first planned retirement community. The Del Webb "Sun City" model, arguably redefined housing in retirement, offering not simply a place to live but the recreational facilities and infrastructure to support an active lifestyle.
Sussex County, Delaware
An estimated 2,229 persons aged 60 or older relocated to Sussex County Delaware, in an average year for the 2011-2015 period. This single PUMA ranks #14 in the nation, and accounts for roughly half of all later life migrants into the state. Delaware is routinely numbered among the most tax-friendly states for retirees. Apart from these considerations, Sussex County offers access to beaches, proximity to a number of urban areas, and a comparatively low cost of living.
Nevada
Later life migration to Nevada centers, predictably, on two destination areas Las Vegas and the Reno & Carson City areas. The Las Vegas area incorporates five leading destination PUMAS, listed in Table 1, only one of these "Central Clark County—Western Henderson City" (#16) appears in the top 25. Together, Las Vegas area destination PUMA's attract about 7,500 older in-migrants annually, amounting to more than 40% of Nevada's total. Notable, these destination PUMA's are located to the south and west of the city center, consistent with the Phoenix area pattern.
The second top 100 destination PUMA in the state, "Carson City, Lyon, Douglas & Storey Counties" (#32) shares overlapping boundaries with both the Reno and the Carson City metro areas. An estimated 1,659 older adults arrived in the PUMA from out of state annually during the 2011-2015 period.
Florida's East Coast
Top 100 destination PUMAs are distributed along Florida's Atlantic Coast. From parts of Broward County in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area to "Northern St. John's County" in the Jacksonville metro area. "Southeastern Palm Beach County—Greater Delray Beach City" (#25) is the leading destination PUMA in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area. In the environs of Port St. Lucie, "Martin County" (#17) attracts about 2,026 later life migrants per year, a figure essentially matched by coastal PUMAs to the North: "Sebastian, FL: Indian River County" (#18), "Palm Bay, FL: Northwestern Brevard County" (#23), and "Deltona, FL: Volusia County" (#20).
The nearly unbroken string of top 100 destination PUMAs along Florida's Atlantic coast must surely reflect Henry Flagler's legacy. As mentioned in a previous article, industrialist Henry Flagler, beginning in the 1880's constructed the Florida East Coast Railway along which he built and operated a chain of luxurious resort hotels, stretching from the Hotel Ponce de Leon in St. Augustine to the Royal Palm Hotel in Miami, which opened in 1897. Tourism destinations once-established, sometimes mature into retirement destinations. This is almost certainly an important part of the story along Florida's Atlantic Coast.
Alabama's Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle
"Daphne, AL: Baldwin County" (#29) on the Gulf of Mexico, during the 2011- 2015 period received about 1,800 in-migrants aged 60 or older in an average year. Baldwin County includes the community of Fairhope on Mobile Bay, a popular retirement destination only 30 minutes from Mobile and an hour from Pensacola.
To the east near Panama City on the Florida panhandle, "Walton, Washington, Holmes & Bay Counties" (#40) brings roughly 1,500 older newcomers to the state annually. On the southern edge of this PUMA, Highway 30-A hugs the coast. A popular vacation destination, the route is populated by state parks, beach condos, dining venues, and upscale communities such as Rosemary Beach.
Other Destination Areas
Other destination areas with somewhat lower in-migration estimates deserve mention. One quite literally stands apart from the others. Though not shown on the map, one Hawaii PUMA ranks among the top 100:"Kahului, HI: Maui, Kalawao & Kauai Counties" (#82). Maui hosts millions of tourists each year, a factor that almost certainly helps to account for the region's ability to attract retirement age in-migrants.
A number of destination PUMAs are positioned in the northern corners of the country. The PUMA that contains Acadia National Park illustrates the point "Coastal Maine Region--Hancock, Knox, Waldo & Lincoln" (#72). In the Pacific Northwest, "Grants Pass, OR: Josephine, Coos & Curry Counties" (#44), "Bend, OR: Deschutes County" (#53), "Nonmetro, WA: Clallam & Jefferson Counties" (#77), "Mount Vernon, WA: Skagit, Island, and San Juan Counties" (#81), and "Couer d'Alene, ID: Northwestern Kootenai County" (#50) all attract more than 1,000 older in-migrants annually.
Several mountainous areas in the interior are also listed among the top 100 destination PUMAs. New Mexico's "Santa Fe County" (#61) attracts an estimated 1,251 in-migrants aged 60 or older per year, about 20% of the state's total annual influx. Two adjacent PUMAs in the Ozarks, each pull in about 1,300 older in-migrants annually: "Fayetteville, AR: Benton County" (#57) and "Branson, MO: Taney, Barry, Stone & McDonald Counties" (#48). In western North Carolina, two PUMAs together attract about 2,300 older in-migrants per year: "Henderson & Transylvania Counties" (#70) and "Southern Jackson, Macon, Cherokee & Clay Counties" (#63).
Overall, leading destination areas generally have two factors in common. First, they are typically situated in regions with relatively high levels of tourism and/or second home ownership. Second, top 100 destination PUMAs tend to be on the outskirts of one or more metro areas. This distribution reflects the site location strategy developed by the Del Webb Corporation and replicated by other developers around the country. As Kevin McHugh and colleagues explained in their Urban Geography article, the Del Webb strategy places active adult communities on the margins of a metropolitan area, providing residents: (1) an array of outdoor recreational opportunities in a scenic environment; (2) access to first class health care, an international airport, and other urban amenities; and (3) an opportunity to escape the traffic, congestion, and crime associated with central cities.
Outmigration
The places of origin for movers and migrants are defined in the ACS as Migration Public Use Microdata Areas (MIGPUMAs). To protect the identity of ACS respondents, MIGPUMAs offer less spatial information: they are typically comprised of groups of PUMAs. Table 2 shows estimated annual outmigration of persons aged 60 and older for the top 100 sending MIGPUMAs. The list, as will be evident, includes two different kinds of sending areas.
Counterstream Return Zones
As noted in the previous article covering state to state migration flows, areas that receive large in-bound flows of older migrants typically develop substantial out-bound flows – called "counterstream return" flows. This is so because of those who move to an amenity-rich destination at or near retirement age, a portion will return to the area or previous residence or move towards adult children some years later as the need arises.
Consistent with the counterstream return pattern, "Phoenix, AZ: Maricopa County" is the leading sending MIGPUMA listed in Table 2. Nearly 12,000 adults aged 60 or older leave the area bound for other states in a typical year. Adjacent to Maricopa County there are a number of other top 100 sending areas, such as "Tucson, AZ: Pima County" (#22), as can be seen in Figure 2 which maps annual out-migration for each MIGPUMA in the Contiguous United States.
A second area that follows the counterstream return pattern is "Las Vegas, NV: Clark County" (#5). During the 2011-2015 period, nearly 9,000 adults aged 60 or older left the area bound for other states in a typical year.
Florida accounts for 16 of the top 100 sending areas in the US, many of these areas overlap with the destination PUMAs described above. On the Atlantic side Miami area "Palm Beach County" (#15), "Broward County" (#16), and "Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties" (#30) each sent no less than 3,000 older migrants to other states in an average year for the 2011-2015 period. Central Florida is also an important sending region. In the Orlando area, an estimated 2,560 out- bound older migrants departed from "Orange County" (#43) annually. "Lake and Sumter Counties" (#69) sent about 2,000 to other states. On the Gulf Coast, "Tampa, FL: Pinellas County" (#17) typically sends about 4,200 older migrants to other state each year. Neighboring "Hillsborough County" (#33) and "Cape Coral, FL: Lee County" (#27) to the south both have large annual outflows, 3,049 and 3,314 respectively.
Urban Exodus
The second group of top 100 sending areas shown in Table 2 is comprised of MIGPUMAs located in dense urban areas. As the late Dr. Charles Longino observed on many occasions, older adults tend to move "down the metropolitan hierarchy." Escaping traffic, congestion, crime, and a high cost of living in favor less populous urban areas. Consistent with this pattern, the leading origin areas in Table 2 include the nation's largest and most densely settled urban zones.
As a case in point, "Los Angeles, CA: Los Angeles County" (#2) sent more than 10,000 older migrants to other states each year during the 2011-2015 period. The county has a population of nearly 10,000,000 and a population density of about 2,400 per square mile. Another example, the fourth ranked sending MIGPUMA, "Chicago, IL: Cook County" had a population density of more than 5,000 people per square mile in 2012.
The New York and Newark area alone accounts for 12 of the top 100 sending MIGPUMAs, together sending nearly 39,000 older adults to other states annually. Of these, three New York counties send out more than 4,000 migrants aged 60 or older annually: "Kings County" (#8), "New York County" (#14), and "Queens County" (#18).
The urban exodus pattern is apparent in cities around the country, including: Memphis, Atlanta, Houston, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Kansas City, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and Seattle. The pattern is in fact replicated outside the continental US. "Honolulu County" (#49) and Alaska's "Anchorage Municipality" (#57) each sent more than 2,200 older adults to other states in a typical year. A consistent and pervasive dynamic, retirees, free from the need to commute to work, often move away from dense urban zones.
Conclusion
A review of later life migration destination and sending areas reveals several patterns. Destination areas tend to be located in regions that attract tourists and that are on the outskirts of some urban zone. Sending regions are of two types: those that send large numbers of "counterstream return" migrants and dense urban zones. Evaluating the volume of in-migration and out-migration leads to a second question. How does older adult migration effect sending and receiving communities? The next article in the series will focus on the economic impact of in-bound and out-bound later life migration flows.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Table 1
Table 2
BY DON BRADLEY
Later Life Migration in the United States: Receiving and Sending Areas within States
Introduction
What are the most important sending and receiving areas for older interstate migrants in the United States? This is the third installment in a series that examines later-life migration, using recent data from the Census Bureau. Previous articles have described state-level patterns and state-to-state flows, but state-level tabulations provide only part of the picture. South Carolina and North Carolina are important destination states, ranking #4 and #5 respectively in terms of net-migration. Within these states, where do older in-migrants go? California sends about 55,000 older adults to other states annually; where do these out-bound migrants originate? These are the kinds of questions that state-level analysis cannot address and they are important questions.
State-level factors shape migration decision making in later life (e.g., climate, state tax policy, etc.), but local community-level considerations have an especially direct and powerful impact. At the point of origin, perceived neighborhood decline and social disorder may generate residential dissatisfaction, pushing individuals and couples to consider moving. Frustration with traffic, high costs, congestion, and a fear of crime may also motivate the decision to relocate away from urban areas. Community-level factors at destination are equally vital. Tourist destinations build connections and offer the kinds of amenities that often attract retirement-aged migrants. As previously noted, vacation experience in a particular community provide the kind of information that allows individual and couples to imagine living there happily in retirement. Also important, scholars have long recognized the part played by social networks - friends and family in a specific community provide information on housing options and offer the promise of support.
States are correctly viewed as a collection of sending zones and destination communities. The point of the present article is to identify and describe the places within states that send and receive the largest numbers of older interstate migrants.
In-Migration
The best available data to analyze later life migration comes from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) project. These are individual-level data, where each record represents a single ACS respondent. To protect the anonymity of ACS respondents, the Census Bureau releases limited geographic information.i The smallest spatial units defined in the individual-level ACS data are Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs), constructed to include no less than 100,000 persons.ii
Figure 1 depicts the estimated number of adults aged 60 or older arriving annually from out of state for every PUMA in the Contiguous United States. Top destination areas are, not surprisingly, clustered in leading destination states like Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Estimated total annual in-migration for the leading 100 PUMAs are shown in Table 1.iii Of note, there are a number of leading destination areas, nested in states that receive comparatively few older in-migrants. New Mexico, as a case in point, ranks 32nd in regards to total in-migration. The Santa Fe area PUMA, by contrast, ranks 61st out of some 2,300 PUMAs.
Before proceeding, readers are reminded that the ACS is an ongoing project that collects information from a large representative sample of US households each year. Consequently, the figures presented throughout the paper are estimates that are subject to random sampling error. For each area represented in the tables, one "Margin of Error" (MOE) above and below the estimated number of migrants defines the range that has a 95% chance of containing the true population value.iv The presented rankings offer a useful way to index and reference sending and destination areas, but in most cases areas with similar rankings will be statistically tied.
Central Florida
Heading the list is the "Northern Sumter & Northern Lake Counties" PUMA, the boundaries of which overlap with two metro areas: Orlando and The Villages. During the 2011-2015 period, "Northern Sumter & Northern Lake Counties" received an estimated 4,460 older in-migrants annually. A remarkable total, the annual flow of older in-migrants amounts to approximately 6.5% of the PUMA's total 60 and older population. Central Florida is clearly a vibrant destination area for older migrants. Area PUMAs ranking in the top 100 include: "Ocala, Fl: South Central Marion County" (#11), "Homosassa Springs, FL: Citrus County" (#27), "Orlando & The Villages, FL: Southern Lake & Southern Sumter Counties (#43), "Orlando, FL: Northern Lake County" (#36), "Lakeland, FL: Northeastern Polk County" (#33), and "Lakeland, FL: Southern Polk County" (#46). These PUMAs together attract more than 15,000 in-migrants aged 60 and older to Florida annually.
Northern and Western Arizona
Northern and Western Arizona boast several of the top destination PUMAs in the nation. Ranking second, "Lake Havasu City, AZ: Mohave & La Paz Counties-- Lake Havasu City" pulls an estimated 4,379 older migrants from out of state in a typical year. These newcomers in a given year amount to almost 6% of the PUMA's 60 and older population. Just to the east, an estimated 3,251 older adults move to "Prescott, AZ: Yavapi County" (#4) from out of state annually. Finally, in the Southwest corner, "Yuma, AZ: Yuma County- Yuma City" (#21) brings nearly 2,000 in-migrants aged 60 or older. These three PUMA's alone account for about 9,600 older in-migrants each year, which is more than relocate to Wisconsin annually, the 25th ranked state.
The Carolina Coast
"Hilton Head Island, SC: Beaufort & Jasper Counties" is the third-ranked in- migration PUMA; an estimated 3,396 adults aged 60 and older arrived annually from other states during the 2011-2015 period. The region's attraction is not surprising. The area is replete with golf courses, sailing and other recreational opportunities. What is more, Savannah, Georgia is less than an hour away.
South Carolina's other top 100 destination PUMA to the north "Myrtle Beach, SC: Southeastern Horry County," (#10) attracts about 2,400 older newcomers to the state annually. Across the border in North Carolina, "Brunswick County" (#37), is part of the Myrtle Beach metropolitan area and attracted roughly 1,500 interstate migrants aged 60 or older in an average year during the 2011-2015 period. This region, named "retirement alley" by some locals, lies along Highway 17 connecting Wilmington, North Carolina with Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Ready access to shopping and dining venues is an important advantage. From Holden Beach, in the heart of "retirement alley" one can reach Wilmington in about 45 minutes and North Myrtle Beach in roughly an hour.
Florida's Gulf Coast
"Punta Gorda, FL: Charlotte County" (#5), hosts an estimated 3,156 later life in- migrants annually. As is the case with all the top destination PUMAs, outdoor recreation opportunities and amenities are plentiful: Charlotte Harbor State Park, an array of golf clubs, and marinas. Sarasota to the north and the Fort Meyers area to the south are no more than an hour away from most spots in Charlotte County.
Florida's Gulf Coast is, in fact, home to the densest cluster of leading destination PUMA's in the nation. The North Port metro area incorporate at least parts of six leading PUMAS "Eastern Sarasota County" (#7), "Central Sarasota County & Gulf Coast" (#15), "Southern Manatee County" (#24), "West Central Manatee County" (#26), "Northern Sarasota County" (#49), and "Northern Manatee County" (#60). Cape Coral's boundaries overlap with five of the top 100 destination PUMAS in the US: "Northwestern Lee County" (#8), "Southern & Western Lee County" (#9), "Southeastern Lee County" (#13), "Northeastern Lee County" (#30), and "Central Lee County" (#42). Finally, three Collier County PUMA's in the Naples area attract no less than 1,400 older in-migrants annually: "Northwestern Collier County" (#19), "Eastern Collier County" (#34), and "Southwestern Collier County" (#41).
Phoenix, Arizona
The Greater Phoenix area includes ten leading destination PUMAs, though only three rank in the top fifty. "Maricopa County—El Mirage City & Sun City" (#6) attracts an estimated 2,600 older in-migrants annually. "Maricopa County— Eastern Mesa City," (#12) and "Northern Pinal County—Apache Junction City" (#22) account for 2,300 and about 1,900 respectively. Notably, Phoenix's top destination PUMA's are on the outskirts of the metropolitan area. Sun City is about 30 miles to the west. Mesa City is roughly the same distance to the east of Phoenix.
The amenity-rich Phoenix area has, of course, been a top retirement destination for many decades. Del E. Webb's Sun City, Arizona opened January 1, 1960 – the nation's first planned retirement community. The Del Webb "Sun City" model, arguably redefined housing in retirement, offering not simply a place to live but the recreational facilities and infrastructure to support an active lifestyle.
Sussex County, Delaware
An estimated 2,229 persons aged 60 or older relocated to Sussex County Delaware, in an average year for the 2011-2015 period. This single PUMA ranks #14 in the nation, and accounts for roughly half of all later life migrants into the state. Delaware is routinely numbered among the most tax-friendly states for retirees. Apart from these considerations, Sussex County offers access to beaches, proximity to a number of urban areas, and a comparatively low cost of living.
Nevada
Later life migration to Nevada centers, predictably, on two destination areas Las Vegas and the Reno & Carson City areas. The Las Vegas area incorporates five leading destination PUMAS, listed in Table 1, only one of these "Central Clark County—Western Henderson City" (#16) appears in the top 25. Together, Las Vegas area destination PUMA's attract about 7,500 older in-migrants annually, amounting to more than 40% of Nevada's total. Notable, these destination PUMA's are located to the south and west of the city center, consistent with the Phoenix area pattern.
The second top 100 destination PUMA in the state, "Carson City, Lyon, Douglas & Storey Counties" (#32) shares overlapping boundaries with both the Reno and the Carson City metro areas. An estimated 1,659 older adults arrived in the PUMA from out of state annually during the 2011-2015 period.
Florida's East Coast
Top 100 destination PUMAs are distributed along Florida's Atlantic Coast. From parts of Broward County in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area to "Northern St. John's County" in the Jacksonville metro area. "Southeastern Palm Beach County—Greater Delray Beach City" (#25) is the leading destination PUMA in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area. In the environs of Port St. Lucie, "Martin County" (#17) attracts about 2,026 later life migrants per year, a figure essentially matched by coastal PUMAs to the North: "Sebastian, FL: Indian River County" (#18), "Palm Bay, FL: Northwestern Brevard County" (#23), and "Deltona, FL: Volusia County" (#20).
The nearly unbroken string of top 100 destination PUMAs along Florida's Atlantic coast must surely reflect Henry Flagler's legacy. As mentioned in a previous article, industrialist Henry Flagler, beginning in the 1880's constructed the Florida East Coast Railway along which he built and operated a chain of luxurious resort hotels, stretching from the Hotel Ponce de Leon in St. Augustine to the Royal Palm Hotel in Miami, which opened in 1897. Tourism destinations once-established, sometimes mature into retirement destinations. This is almost certainly an important part of the story along Florida's Atlantic Coast.
Alabama's Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle
"Daphne, AL: Baldwin County" (#29) on the Gulf of Mexico, during the 2011- 2015 period received about 1,800 in-migrants aged 60 or older in an average year. Baldwin County includes the community of Fairhope on Mobile Bay, a popular retirement destination only 30 minutes from Mobile and an hour from Pensacola.
To the east near Panama City on the Florida panhandle, "Walton, Washington, Holmes & Bay Counties" (#40) brings roughly 1,500 older newcomers to the state annually. On the southern edge of this PUMA, Highway 30-A hugs the coast. A popular vacation destination, the route is populated by state parks, beach condos, dining venues, and upscale communities such as Rosemary Beach.
Other Destination Areas
Other destination areas with somewhat lower in-migration estimates deserve mention. One quite literally stands apart from the others. Though not shown on the map, one Hawaii PUMA ranks among the top 100:"Kahului, HI: Maui, Kalawao & Kauai Counties" (#82). Maui hosts millions of tourists each year, a factor that almost certainly helps to account for the region's ability to attract retirement age in-migrants.
A number of destination PUMAs are positioned in the northern corners of the country. The PUMA that contains Acadia National Park illustrates the point "Coastal Maine Region--Hancock, Knox, Waldo & Lincoln" (#72). In the Pacific Northwest, "Grants Pass, OR: Josephine, Coos & Curry Counties" (#44), "Bend, OR: Deschutes County" (#53), "Nonmetro, WA: Clallam & Jefferson Counties" (#77), "Mount Vernon, WA: Skagit, Island, and San Juan Counties" (#81), and "Couer d'Alene, ID: Northwestern Kootenai County" (#50) all attract more than 1,000 older in-migrants annually.
Several mountainous areas in the interior are also listed among the top 100 destination PUMAs. New Mexico's "Santa Fe County" (#61) attracts an estimated 1,251 in-migrants aged 60 or older per year, about 20% of the state's total annual influx. Two adjacent PUMAs in the Ozarks, each pull in about 1,300 older in-migrants annually: "Fayetteville, AR: Benton County" (#57) and "Branson, MO: Taney, Barry, Stone & McDonald Counties" (#48). In western North Carolina, two PUMAs together attract about 2,300 older in-migrants per year: "Henderson & Transylvania Counties" (#70) and "Southern Jackson, Macon, Cherokee & Clay Counties" (#63).
Overall, leading destination areas generally have two factors in common. First, they are typically situated in regions with relatively high levels of tourism and/or second home ownership. Second, top 100 destination PUMAs tend to be on the outskirts of one or more metro areas. This distribution reflects the site location strategy developed by the Del Webb Corporation and replicated by other developers around the country. As Kevin McHugh and colleagues explained in their Urban Geography article, the Del Webb strategy places active adult communities on the margins of a metropolitan area, providing residents: (1) an array of outdoor recreational opportunities in a scenic environment; (2) access to first class health care, an international airport, and other urban amenities; and (3) an opportunity to escape the traffic, congestion, and crime associated with central cities.
Outmigration
The places of origin for movers and migrants are defined in the ACS as Migration Public Use Microdata Areas (MIGPUMAs). To protect the identity of ACS respondents, MIGPUMAs offer less spatial information: they are typically comprised of groups of PUMAs. Table 2 shows estimated annual outmigration of persons aged 60 and older for the top 100 sending MIGPUMAs. The list, as will be evident, includes two different kinds of sending areas.
Counterstream Return Zones
As noted in the previous article covering state to state migration flows, areas that receive large in-bound flows of older migrants typically develop substantial out-bound flows – called "counterstream return" flows. This is so because of those who move to an amenity-rich destination at or near retirement age, a portion will return to the area or previous residence or move towards adult children some years later as the need arises.
Consistent with the counterstream return pattern, "Phoenix, AZ: Maricopa County" is the leading sending MIGPUMA listed in Table 2. Nearly 12,000 adults aged 60 or older leave the area bound for other states in a typical year. Adjacent to Maricopa County there are a number of other top 100 sending areas, such as "Tucson, AZ: Pima County" (#22), as can be seen in Figure 2 which maps annual out-migration for each MIGPUMA in the Contiguous United States.
A second area that follows the counterstream return pattern is "Las Vegas, NV: Clark County" (#5). During the 2011-2015 period, nearly 9,000 adults aged 60 or older left the area bound for other states in a typical year.
Florida accounts for 16 of the top 100 sending areas in the US, many of these areas overlap with the destination PUMAs described above. On the Atlantic side Miami area "Palm Beach County" (#15), "Broward County" (#16), and "Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties" (#30) each sent no less than 3,000 older migrants to other states in an average year for the 2011-2015 period. Central Florida is also an important sending region. In the Orlando area, an estimated 2,560 out- bound older migrants departed from "Orange County" (#43) annually. "Lake and Sumter Counties" (#69) sent about 2,000 to other states. On the Gulf Coast, "Tampa, FL: Pinellas County" (#17) typically sends about 4,200 older migrants to other state each year. Neighboring "Hillsborough County" (#33) and "Cape Coral, FL: Lee County" (#27) to the south both have large annual outflows, 3,049 and 3,314 respectively.
Urban Exodus
The second group of top 100 sending areas shown in Table 2 is comprised of MIGPUMAs located in dense urban areas. As the late Dr. Charles Longino observed on many occasions, older adults tend to move "down the metropolitan hierarchy." Escaping traffic, congestion, crime, and a high cost of living in favor less populous urban areas. Consistent with this pattern, the leading origin areas in Table 2 include the nation's largest and most densely settled urban zones.
As a case in point, "Los Angeles, CA: Los Angeles County" (#2) sent more than 10,000 older migrants to other states each year during the 2011-2015 period. The county has a population of nearly 10,000,000 and a population density of about 2,400 per square mile. Another example, the fourth ranked sending MIGPUMA, "Chicago, IL: Cook County" had a population density of more than 5,000 people per square mile in 2012.
The New York and Newark area alone accounts for 12 of the top 100 sending MIGPUMAs, together sending nearly 39,000 older adults to other states annually. Of these, three New York counties send out more than 4,000 migrants aged 60 or older annually: "Kings County" (#8), "New York County" (#14), and "Queens County" (#18).
The urban exodus pattern is apparent in cities around the country, including: Memphis, Atlanta, Houston, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Kansas City, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and Seattle. The pattern is in fact replicated outside the continental US. "Honolulu County" (#49) and Alaska's "Anchorage Municipality" (#57) each sent more than 2,200 older adults to other states in a typical year. A consistent and pervasive dynamic, retirees, free from the need to commute to work, often move away from dense urban zones.
Conclusion
A review of later life migration destination and sending areas reveals several patterns. Destination areas tend to be located in regions that attract tourists and that are on the outskirts of some urban zone. Sending regions are of two types: those that send large numbers of "counterstream return" migrants and dense urban zones. Evaluating the volume of in-migration and out-migration leads to a second question. How does older adult migration effect sending and receiving communities? The next article in the series will focus on the economic impact of in-bound and out-bound later life migration flows.
i With individual-level PUMA data, estimates at the census block or block group level
are not possible. At the same time readers should note that block and block group
level summary data offer limited information about individuals. From those summary
tables, for example one could not count the number of interstate migrants aged 60 or
older.
ii Depending on the population density of an area PUMAS may be constructed from parts of counties, counties, or groups of counties. As such, PUMAs don't necessarily represent a political, social, or economic unit the way that counties, neighborhoods, and metropolitan areas do.
iii The names provided for each PUMA are truncated and simplified from official Census Bureau names. For each PUMA, Table 1 identifies the metro area or area that share overlapping boundaries – where official metro area names include multiple cities, only the first and largest is shown. So for example, "Atlanta-Sandy Springs, Roswell, GA" is truncated to "Atlanta, GA." The official PUMA names are likewise simplified somewhat from the original.
iv Margin of Error values are calculated based on the Census Bureau's recommendations for constructing "direct standard errors" using replicate weights included in the ACS data.
ii Depending on the population density of an area PUMAS may be constructed from parts of counties, counties, or groups of counties. As such, PUMAs don't necessarily represent a political, social, or economic unit the way that counties, neighborhoods, and metropolitan areas do.
iii The names provided for each PUMA are truncated and simplified from official Census Bureau names. For each PUMA, Table 1 identifies the metro area or area that share overlapping boundaries – where official metro area names include multiple cities, only the first and largest is shown. So for example, "Atlanta-Sandy Springs, Roswell, GA" is truncated to "Atlanta, GA." The official PUMA names are likewise simplified somewhat from the original.
iv Margin of Error values are calculated based on the Census Bureau's recommendations for constructing "direct standard errors" using replicate weights included in the ACS data.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Table 1
Table 2
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